Evaluation
gpt-5.2
Team BAL
ID 4cf67df9
openrouter
Started 2026-01-09THH24:35:52Z
Score
0.520
W / L
26 / 24
Run diff
12
Run overview
Model
gpt-5.2
(openai/gpt-5.2)
Task
season_simulation_agent
Team
BAL
Agent
openrouter
Started
2026-01-09THH24:35:52Z
Completed
2026-01-09THH24:41:19Z
Notes
admin_start games=50 mu_for=4.981481481481482 mu_against=4.185185185185185 seed=None team=BAL season=2023 source=pybaseball
Games
| Res | For | Against | Diff | Cum W-L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0-1 |
| 2 | L | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0-2 |
| 3 | L | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0-3 |
| 4 | W | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1-3 |
| 5 | W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 |
| 6 | L | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2-4 |
| 7 | W | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3-4 |
| 8 | L | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3-5 |
| 9 | W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 |
| 10 | L | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4-6 |
| 11 | W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5-6 |
| 12 | W | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6-6 |
| 13 | W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7-6 |
| 14 | W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8-6 |
| 15 | W | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9-6 |
| 16 | L | 2 | 4 | -2 | 9-7 |
| 17 | L | 4 | 5 | -1 | 9-8 |
| 18 | L | 4 | 7 | -3 | 9-9 |
| 19 | W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10-9 |
| 20 | W | 7 | 3 | 4 | 11-9 |
| 21 | L | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11-10 |
| 22 | W | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12-10 |
| 23 | W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13-10 |
| 24 | L | 3 | 4 | -1 | 13-11 |
| 25 | L | 1 | 3 | -2 | 13-12 |
| 26 | W | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14-12 |
| 27 | L | 4 | 5 | -1 | 14-13 |
| 28 | L | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14-14 |
| 29 | W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 15-14 |
| 30 | L | 6 | 8 | -2 | 15-15 |
| 31 | W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16-15 |
| 32 | L | 5 | 7 | -2 | 16-16 |
| 33 | L | 5 | 8 | -3 | 16-17 |
| 34 | W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17-17 |
| 35 | L | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17-18 |
| 36 | W | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18-18 |
| 37 | L | 4 | 5 | -1 | 18-19 |
| 38 | W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19-19 |
| 39 | W | 7 | 5 | 2 | 20-19 |
| 40 | W | 4 | 1 | 3 | 21-19 |
| 41 | W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22-19 |
| 42 | L | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22-20 |
| 43 | W | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23-20 |
| 44 | W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24-20 |
| 45 | L | 2 | 4 | -2 | 24-21 |
| 46 | L | 3 | 8 | -5 | 24-22 |
| 47 | L | 1 | 5 | -4 | 24-23 |
| 48 | W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25-23 |
| 49 | W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 26-23 |
| 50 | L | 5 | 8 | -3 | 26-24 |
Logs
| Timestamp | Type | Role | Message | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:19Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'strategy_profile': 'baseline_data_driven', 'weights': {'on_base_over_slugging': 0.6, 'platoon_advantage': 0.65, 'defense_importance': 0.5, 'baserunning_aggression': 0.45, 'bullpen_leverage_aggression': 0.6, 'starter_quick_hook': 0.5, 'injury_risk_avoidance': 0.55}} | With no roster/opponent context provided, set a conservative, data-driven baseline emphasizing OBP and platoon edges while keeping bullpen/starter aggressiveness near neutral. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:19Z | game | engine | Game 1: L 2-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | progress | engine | Progress: 1/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_leverage_aggressiveness': 'increase', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'increase', 'defensive_sub_aggressiveness': 'increase', 'steal_attempt_rate': 'slight_increase', 'sac_bunt_rate': 'decrease'} | Coming off a one-run loss, shifting toward higher leverage bullpen usage and more aggressive platoon/late-game moves improves win probability in close games while avoiding low-EV bunts. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | game | engine | Game 2: L 1-6 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | progress | engine | Progress: 2/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': -0.2, 'window_games': 2, 'recent_run_diffs': [-1, -5]} | Back-to-back negative run differentials suggest current team strength estimate is slightly overstated; modestly lower mu to calibrate decisions. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:20Z | game | engine | Game 3: L 3-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | progress | engine | Progress: 3/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_mu_multiplier': 1.03, 'pitching_mu_multiplier': 1.02} | Three straight negative run differentials suggest we're slightly underperforming on both sides; a small upward μ adjustment increases run production and run prevention projections without requiring roster changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | game | engine | Game 4: W 9-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | progress | engine | Progress: 4/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu_delta': -0.2, 'window_games': 4, 'method': 'recent_run_diff', 'clamp_range': [-1.0, 1.0]} | Recent run differentials average -0.5 over last 4 games, so modestly lower team strength estimate to better align projections without overreacting to small sample volatility. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:21Z | game | engine | Game 5: W 4-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:22Z | progress | engine | Progress: 5/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:22Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'focus': 'run_prevention', 'mu_adjustment': 0.05, 'leverage_reliever_usage': 0.1} | Recent run differentials are slightly negative with multiple one-run losses; small shift toward run prevention and higher leverage reliever usage should improve close-game outcomes without major roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:22Z | game | engine | Game 6: L 2-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:22Z | progress | engine | Progress: 6/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:22Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta': -0.05, 'window_games': 5, 'method': 'recent_run_diff'} | Recent 5-game run differential totals -1, so slightly reduce projected team strength to reflect marginally negative performance. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | game | engine | Game 7: W 10-2 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | progress | engine | Progress: 7/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'aggression': 0.55, 'bullpen_hook': 0.52, 'pinch_hit_threshold': 0.48, 'defensive_sub_threshold': 0.52, 'steal_frequency': 0.5} | Recent run differentials are net positive; make only a slight uptick in late-game leverage (bullpen/pinch-hit) while keeping overall approach near baseline to avoid overreacting to small-sample variance. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | game | engine | Game 8: L 6-9 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | progress | engine | Progress: 8/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:23Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_leverage': 'aggressive', 'closer_usage': 'use_in_highest_leverage', 'starter_hook': 'quicker_third_time_through', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'moderate'} | Recent run differentials are net positive but include a -3 loss; shifting to higher-leverage bullpen deployment and a quicker starter hook should improve win conversion in close games without roster changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | game | engine | Game 9: W 6-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | progress | engine | Progress: 9/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggressiveness': 0.52, 'bullpen_quickness': 0.58, 'pinch_hit_threshold': 0.62, 'steal_frequency': 0.48} | Recent run differentials are net positive with one blowout win; modestly increase bullpen responsiveness and late-game matchup usage while keeping overall aggression near neutral to sustain consistency. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | game | engine | Game 10: L 2-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | progress | engine | Progress: 10/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:24Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'close_game_strategy': {'bullpen_leverage_usage': 'higher', 'pinch_hit_earlier': True, 'small_ball_boost': 'moderate'}, 'blowout_strategy': {'save_high_leverage_relievers': True}} | Recent results include multiple narrow losses (-1, -1) and another close loss (-3), suggesting marginal late-game optimization (higher leverage bullpen and earlier platoon/pinch-hit decisions) could convert close outcomes without impacting blowout management. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | game | engine | Game 11: W 3-1 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | progress | engine | Progress: 11/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu': 0.58} | Recent run differential is modestly positive (+8 over last 5) with some volatility; a slight uptick in managerial aggression is warranted without overcorrecting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | game | engine | Game 12: W 8-2 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | progress | engine | Progress: 12/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:25Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggression': 'slightly_up', 'bullpen_hook': 'slightly_quicker', 'defensive_shifts': 'increase_vs_pull_hitters'} | Recent run differentials trend positive; modestly increase run creation while tightening late-inning leverage usage to protect leads. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | game | engine | Game 13: W 5-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | progress | engine | Progress: 13/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_leverage_usage': 'increase_high_leverage_usage', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'moderate_increase', 'defensive_substitutions': 'maintain', 'baserunning_aggressiveness': 'slight_increase'} | Recent run differentials are consistently positive; a modest increase in leverage-focused bullpen deployment and situational offense can help convert close games without overextending regulars. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | game | engine | Game 14: W 6-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | progress | engine | Progress: 14/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:26Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': 0.1} | Recent run differentials are strongly positive (+10 over last 5), so a small upward strength adjustment is justified without overreacting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | game | engine | Game 15: W 6-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | progress | engine | Progress: 15/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': 0.15, 'reason_code': 'positive_recent_run_diffs', 'effective_games': 5} | Recent run differentials are consistently positive (2,6,1,2,3); modestly increasing mu aligns expectations with current performance without overreacting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | game | engine | Game 16: L 2-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | progress | engine | Progress: 16/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:27Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': 0.2, 'window_games': 5} | Recent run differentials (6,1,2,3,-2) suggest modest outperformance; slightly raise expectation to reflect current form without overreacting to a small sample. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | game | engine | Game 17: L 4-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | progress | engine | Progress: 17/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu_delta': 0.02, 'basis': 'recent_run_diffs'} | Recent run differentials trend slightly positive (net +3 over last 5), warranting a small upward performance expectation adjustment. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | game | engine | Game 18: L 4-7 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | progress | engine | Progress: 18/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:28Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_hook': 'quicker', 'high_leverage_reliever_usage': 'earlier_and_more_frequent', 'defensive_positioning': 'run_prevention_priority', 'baserunning_aggression': 'moderate', 'sac_bunt_frequency': 'low'} | Recent run differentials show a downward trend; tightening run prevention by shortening starter leash and deploying top relievers earlier should reduce late-game runs without needing roster changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | game | engine | Game 19: W 5-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | progress | engine | Progress: 19/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu_delta': -0.02, 'window': 5, 'signal': 'recent_run_differentials', 'recent_diffs': [3, -2, -1, -3, 2]} | Net run differential over last 5 games is slightly negative (-1), so apply a small downward adjustment to baseline team strength. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | game | engine | Game 20: W 7-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | progress | engine | Progress: 20/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:29Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu_delta': 0.05, 'reason_code': 'recent_trend_improving'} | Last two game differentials flipped positive (+2, +4) after three negatives; modestly increase aggressiveness to capitalize without overreacting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | game | engine | Game 21: L 2-6 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | progress | engine | Progress: 21/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'target': 'overall_strategy', 'delta': -0.05} | Recent run differentials are volatile and slightly negative overall; dialing back aggressiveness should reduce downside while performance stabilizes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | game | engine | Game 22: W 4-1 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | progress | engine | Progress: 22/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:30Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_quick_hook': 0.6, 'high_leverage_reliever_priority': 0.7, 'offensive_aggression': 0.45} | Recent run differentials are highly volatile; tighten run prevention by quicker starter hooks and prioritizing top relievers in leverage while slightly reducing offensive aggression to cut outs. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | game | engine | Game 23: W 5-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | progress | engine | Progress: 23/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta': 0.15, 'window_games': 5, 'basis': 'recent_run_differential'} | Last 5 run differentials average +1.2, so modestly increase team strength parameter to reflect recent performance without overreacting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | game | engine | Game 24: L 3-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | progress | engine | Progress: 24/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:31Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta': 0.2, 'window_games': 5, 'method': 'run_diff_trend'} | Last 5 run differentials average +0.6 (3 wins, 2 losses) with two strong +3/+4 margins; small upward mu adjustment reflects slightly improved recent performance without overreacting to volatility. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | game | engine | Game 25: L 1-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | progress | engine | Progress: 25/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'run_diff_mu_delta': 0.2} | Recent run differentials average -0.6; apply a small positive mu tweak to counter mild underperformance without overreacting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | game | engine | Game 26: W 7-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | progress | engine | Progress: 26/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:32Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'strategy_profile': 'close_game_optimization', 'settings': {'bullpen_leverage': 'high', 'pinch_hit_threshold_li': 1.4, 'defensive_replacement_inning': 7, 'sac_bunt_frequency': 'low', 'steal_attempt_rate': 'moderate'}} | Recent run differentials indicate mostly tight outcomes; shifting to a higher-leverage bullpen and earlier late-inning optimization should convert more one- and two-run games without roster or budget changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | game | engine | Game 27: L 4-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | progress | engine | Progress: 27/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'aggressiveness': 0.6, 'pinch_hit_threshold_run_expectancy': 0.02, 'bullpen_hook_multiplier': 1.1} | Recent run differentials are mostly close; slightly increasing tactical aggressiveness and quicker bullpen hooks should improve win conversion in 1–2 run games without requiring roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | game | engine | Game 28: L 5-6 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | progress | engine | Progress: 28/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:33Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'overall_delta': 0.1, 'focus': 'offense'} | Recent run differentials trend negative (4 of last 5 games), so a modest increase in offensive aggressiveness is warranted to generate more scoring without drastic roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | game | engine | Game 29: W 8-7 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | progress | engine | Progress: 29/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offensive_aggressiveness': 'increase_slightly', 'baserunning_aggressiveness': 'increase_slightly', 'bullpen_quick_hook': 'neutral', 'defensive_shifts': 'neutral'} | Recent run differentials are close and volatile; a slight increase in offensive and baserunning aggression can help convert marginal games without overcommitting bullpen usage. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | game | engine | Game 30: L 6-8 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | progress | engine | Progress: 30/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:35Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_hook': 'quicker', 'high_leverage_reliever_usage': 'earlier', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'higher', 'steal_attempt_rate': 'selective', 'sac_bunt_rate': 'lower'} | Recent results are mostly 1–2 run games; shifting to earlier high-leverage bullpen usage and more aggressive late pinch-hitting while reducing low-value bunts should convert close losses into wins without roster changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | game | engine | Game 31: W 5-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | progress | engine | Progress: 31/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': -0.02, 'reason_code': 'recent_performance_under_baseline'} | Recent run differentials are slightly negative overall (net -2 over last 5), so modestly lowering mu better aligns expectations and subsequent decision thresholds with current form. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | game | engine | Game 32: L 5-7 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | progress | engine | Progress: 32/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:36Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggression': 'moderate_low', 'steal_frequency': 'low', 'bunt_frequency': 'very_low', 'bullpen_hook': 'quick', 'leverage_reliever_usage': 'earlier'} | Last 5 run diffs net -3; shift slightly toward run prevention with quicker hooks and earlier leverage relief while keeping low-ROI small-ball/steals down. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | game | engine | Game 33: L 5-8 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | progress | engine | Progress: 33/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_leverage': 'higher', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'higher', 'steal_aggressiveness': 'moderate', 'bunt_frequency': 'lower'} | Recent run differentials are trending negative; increasing high-leverage reliever usage and late-game hitting aggression should convert close losses into wins without roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | game | engine | Game 34: W 4-2 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | progress | engine | Progress: 34/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:37Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'direction': 'increase_aggression', 'amount': 0.1} | Recent run differentials trend negative (avg -0.8), so a modest increase in strategic aggression aims to convert close losses into wins without major roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | game | engine | Game 35: L 2-6 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | progress | engine | Progress: 35/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_hook': 'quicker', 'defense_priority': 'higher', 'steal_frequency': 'lower', 'bunt_frequency': 'lower', 'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'higher'} | Recent run differentials trend negative; prioritize run prevention and leverage bullpen earlier while reducing low-ROI outs. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | game | engine | Game 36: W 8-2 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | progress | engine | Progress: 36/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:38Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'bullpen_usage': {'leverage_priority': 'high', 'use_best_reliever_in_highest_leverage': True, 'avoid_low_leverage_mop_up_in_close_games': True}, 'in_game_tactics': {'pinch_hit_aggressiveness': 'increase_late_close', 'platoon_advantages': 'maximize', 'sac_bunt_frequency': 'decrease'}} | Recent run differentials are volatile (net -1 over last 5); tightening late-game leverage decisions and maximizing platoon matchups should convert close losses without requiring roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | game | engine | Game 37: L 4-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | progress | engine | Progress: 37/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggression': 0.55, 'baserunning_aggression': 0.55, 'bullpen_leverage': 0.6, 'sac_bunt_tendency': 0.4} | Recent run differentials are volatile with a slight tilt toward losses (3 of last 5 negative); modestly increasing offensive and baserunning aggression while tightening bullpen leverage should improve run creation and protect close games without a major risk shift. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | game | engine | Game 38: W 4-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | progress | engine | Progress: 38/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:39Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'aggression_level': 'moderate_plus', 'bullpen_leverage_bias': 'higher', 'pinch_hit_threshold': 'slightly_lower'} | Recent run differentials are volatile but slightly positive; modestly increasing leverage usage and tactical aggression can convert close games without major roster moves. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | game | engine | Game 39: W 7-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | progress | engine | Progress: 39/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'baserunning_aggressiveness': 0.45, 'steal_frequency': 0.4, 'bunt_frequency': 0.15, 'bullpen_leverage_usage': 0.65, 'starter_quick_hook': 0.55, 'defensive_shift_usage': 0.6} | Recent run differentials show moderate volatility; a slightly less aggressive running game and more leverage-focused bullpen usage should reduce big negative swings while maintaining overall edge. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | game | engine | Game 40: W 4-1 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | progress | engine | Progress: 40/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:40Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggression': 0.53, 'bullpen_quick_hook': 0.56, 'steal_attempt_rate': 0.51, 'sac_bunt_rate': 0.44} | Recent run differentials (+6, -1, +1, +2, +3) indicate the current approach is working; make small tweaks toward slightly higher offensive pressure and quicker bullpen leverage while reducing low-upside bunting. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | game | engine | Game 41: W 5-3 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | progress | engine | Progress: 41/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta': 0.1, 'basis': 'recent_run_differentials_last_5', 'window_games': 5} | Recent run differentials (-1, +1, +2, +3, +2) show improving performance; apply a small upward mu adjustment rather than making disruptive roster changes. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | game | engine | Game 42: L 4-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | progress | engine | Progress: 42/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:41Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'mu_delta': 0.05, 'reason_code': 'recent_positive_run_diff'} | Recent run differentials are mostly positive (+7 over last 5), so a small increase in baseline aggressiveness is justified without overreacting to the single negative game. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | game | engine | Game 43: W 7-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | progress | engine | Progress: 43/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'strategy_profile': 'slightly_more_aggressive', 'notes': {'batting': {'early_count_swing_rate_delta': 0.03, 'steal_attempt_rate_delta': 0.01}, 'pitching': {'first_pitch_strike_emphasis': True, 'bullpen_quick_hook': False}}} | Recent run differentials are mostly positive (+8 over last 5); modestly increasing offensive aggression can press the advantage without major risk. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | game | engine | Game 44: W 3-2 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | progress | engine | Progress: 44/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:42Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_aggression': 'slightly_up', 'baserunning_aggression': 'slightly_up', 'bullpen_usage': 'normal', 'defensive_shifts': 'standard'} | Recent run differentials are positive overall; modestly increase offensive/baserunning pressure while keeping pitching usage steady. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | game | engine | Game 45: L 2-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | progress | engine | Progress: 45/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'delta_mu': 0.05} | Recent run differentials sum to +2 over last 5 games, warranting a small upward adjustment while avoiding overreaction to volatility. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | game | engine | Game 46: L 3-8 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | progress | engine | Progress: 46/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:43Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_mu_delta': -0.05, 'pitching_mu_delta': 0.05, 'horizon_games': 5} | Recent run differentials average -1.0 over the last 5 (including a -5), so slightly downgrade near-term offense expectations and modestly upweight pitching/run-prevention emphasis. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | game | engine | Game 47: L 1-5 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | progress | engine | Progress: 47/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'strategy_focus': 'run_prevention', 'starter_hook': 'earlier', 'third_time_through_penalty': 'avoid', 'bullpen_leverage_usage': 'higher', 'defensive_aggressiveness': 'moderate'} | Recent run differentials are trending negative; tightening run prevention by pulling starters earlier and increasing high-leverage bullpen usage should reduce blow-up innings and stabilize results. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | game | engine | Game 48: W 5-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | progress | engine | Progress: 48/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'offense_weight': 0.45, 'defense_weight': 0.55, 'bullpen_aggressiveness': 0.65, 'steal_frequency': 0.35, 'shift_frequency': 0.6} | Recent run differentials trend negative; bias strategy slightly toward run prevention and quicker leverage bullpen usage while keeping offense stable. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:44Z | game | engine | Game 49: W 5-4 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:45Z | progress | engine | Progress: 49/50 games complete | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:45Z | decision | agent | adjust_mu {'hitting_approach': 'contact_first', 'baserunning_aggression': 'conservative', 'bullpen_strategy': 'higher_leverage_earlier', 'pitch_selection_bias': 'increase_first_pitch_strikes'} | Recent run differentials (-2, -5, -4, +1, +1) suggest consistent shortfalls; shift to higher-contact offense, reduce outs on bases, and tighten leverage bullpen usage to prevent multi-run innings. |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:45Z | game | engine | Game 50: L 5-8 | |
| 2026-01-09THH24:41:45Z | progress | engine | Progress: 50/50 games complete |